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Is BJP Going To Be The Kingmaker In Kerala?
Today 25 million voters will decide the fate of 3 major players in the State of Kerala. In Kerala a 0.25 percent swing can bring a change in the State Government. Since 1997 such small swings have been bringing both the fronts to power. In the last assembly polls held in 2011 a tiny shift of 0.89 percent of the votes helped the Congress led United Democratic Front to come to power.
The state has been ruled by traditional political rivals, the Congress led United Democratic Front and the CPI (M) led Left Democratic Front. The sudden intrusion from BJP will decide on who is going to be the winner in the State assembly election.
In at least two dozen constituencies the BJP has drawn the LDF and UDF into triangular contests. The Congress led UDF has Muslims, Christians and other minorities as it's main vote base. While Christian votes remain largely with UDF both CPI (M) and Congress have been vying for Muslim voters. A large chunk of numerically strong Ezhava community used to vote for the CPI (M) led LDF till now but with the BJP in the contest, the equation could change drastically.
In this election as the Bharatiya Janata Party has entered into an alliance with Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) a political outfit of Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP) that represents the strong Ezhava community it can change the political equation in the State. This alliance will help BJP in increasing their vote share.
The election outcome will depend on the performance of the third player who are becoming stronger poll after poll. The Bharatiya Janata Party has increased its vote share from 4.67 percent in 2006 to 6.03 percent in 2011. The local body elections in which the BJP scored its highest vote share of 14.81 percent shows that the BJP has made inroads into other parties.
Although Hindus constitute 54% of state population, the BJP has failed to send a single legislator to the State Assembly till now. If BJP gains in this election with the help of BDJS the whole caste politics of Kerala will change drastically in the time to come.